PAKISTAN
is at war with itself. The situation there is worrying and sad. It is worrying
because the Taliban over the past several weeks have freely chosen to attack
highly secure targets in Islamabad
and other major cities, causing widespread damage. Clearly, the Taliban are now
a force to reckon with. It is sad because Pakistanis are killing Pakistanis.
Many innocent lives have been lost in these and previous attacks. Fear has
gripped ordinary citizens.
On October 17, the army launched as offensive in
lawless Waziristan to quell the Taliban insurgency. More
lives on both sides will be lost. Hundreds of thousands will be displaced --
becoming refugees in their own land. Earlier in May, the army launched a
similar offensive against the Taliban in Swat. Though the Taliban have
withdrawn, life in Swat is far from normal today.
The region has been neglected by Islamabad
for long. It has a feudal society based on tribal loyalty. Tribal affairs
expert Rahimullah Yusufzai has described Waziristan as a
"Black Hole." The Pakistan
army has little or no intelligence on this mountainous terrain of goat tracks,
caves and thick forests. The battle here will be treacherous. The militants
fighting a guerilla war will melt into the mountains and lie low for the time
being.
How did Pakistan
come to this pass? In its history of six decades Pakistan
has repeatedly been manhandled and mauled by the army. Military governments, to
justify their interventions, had kept the Kashmir issue
alive, which they consider as their "front yard." They actively aided
and abetted a strong secessionist insurgency in Indian occupied Kashmir.
In their "backyard" -- Afghanistan
-- they armed and funded the Mujahideens to evict the Soviets (1989), with US
assistance. When the different factions of Mujahideen failed to govern and
pushed the country to civil war, ISI decided to oust the Mujahideen.
Pakistan
then created the Taliban and let it loose from across the Durand Line to evict
the Mujahideen from Kabul (1996).
The Taliban installed themselves in Kabul,
enforced oppressive laws on the people and provided sanctuary to Osama Bin
Laden's al-Qaeda. Like the Mujahideen, the Taliban also got out of Pakistan's
control. Soon after 9/11, the US
launched military operation "Enduring Freedom" in October 2001 and
ousted the Taliban-led government of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The
Taliban fled to the mountains from Kabul
and remained active to "fight another day." They are now on the
doorsteps of Islamabad (and Kabul).
The US
has been helping Pakistan
to contain the menace of the Taliban. Unfortunately, it is the Pakistan
army that cooperates with the US
military -- the elected civilian government has no control over these policies
of Pakistan.
Even now, the whole show is being run by army chief General Ashfaq Parvez
Kayani. Recently, the Kayani-Zardari confrontation again came in focus.
The Kerry-Lugar Bill for providing $7.5 billion
to Pakistan
over the next 5 years has further deteriorated the relations between the
president and the army chief. The army and the civilian government were at
loggerheads when Washington
demanded that the civilian government maintains control over the armed forces.
Kayani rejected the condition, saying it eroded Pakistan's
sovereignty.
The US
has a number of objectives for its involvement in the region. First, to keep a
close watch over Pakistan's
nuclear arsenal -- the "Islamic bomb" must not be used against Israel.
Washington has been spending
millions of dollars to help Pakistan
secure its nuclear warheads and laboratories from falling into "enemy
hands" -- meaning the Taliban and Al Qaeda. There are reports that US
forces are actually involved in guarding the nuclear sites of Pakistan.
Second, close relations with Pakistan
help its policy of encircling China.
India is now an
important ally in that policy. Third, the US
has eyes on the rich resources of the region -- particularly Afghanistan's
untapped oil and gas reserves.
The resurgence of Taliban raises a number of
questions. Who gains from the current turmoil in Pakistan
and Afghanistan?
Is it only the drug money of Afghanistan
which is helping them to buy weapons? Are the Taliban really so powerful that
they can topple the civilian government in Islamabad?
There are no clear answers.
It is unlikely that the Taliban will take over Pakistan,
unless aided by a powerful state. Pakistan's
interior minister has accused India
of aiding the Taliban to weaken Pakistan.
If that be the case, Delhi may not
find it amusing if Pakistan
disintegrates and the extremist elements of Afghanistan
and Pakistan
together install themselves at its doorstep. The other possibility is that Israel
and CIA is trying to make Pakistan
dysfunctional and create a situation to take over control of its nuclear
arsenal. China
will certainly react to such an eventuality. Indeed, a Balkanised Pakistan will
be to the advantage of neither Delhi
nor Washington.
Pakistan
still has a powerful and functioning military that has tasted state power in
the past. The civilian government of Asif Ali Zardari should immediately patch
up all differences with General Kayani. It should recognise that today Pakistan
is surrounded by inimical states -- India,
Afghanistan, Iran.
Pakistan's ISI
must also give up its policy of destabilising neighbouring countries.
Washington
should strengthen Pakistan's
civilian government and discourage the army from taking over once again. The US
also needs to revise it tactics against the extremists. US
drone attacks on targets in the tribal areas has been a major source of
discontent amongst ordinary Pakistanis. For the extremists it is an ideological
war based on religion.
Even if the Army succeeds in quelling the
Tehrik-I-Taliban for now -- extremism is such a malaise that it will linger on
and relapse at a later stage. Only a truly democratic political process coupled
with modern laws and economic development for the people of the frontier
provinces will help resolve this tribal uprising.
Mahmood Hasan is a former Ambassador and
Secretary, and Policy Advisor, Centre for Foreign Affairs Studies.
